Making yourself redundant..
Where's "we are not barnacles" when you need him?
Has anyone done this? Any tips? Am trying to be proper annoying and a bit fucking useless, but doubt anyone's noticed the difference.
I know this may be strange thing to do in the current climate, but meh, I'd rather jump before we're all pushed.
On another more optimistic tip, this gives me a warmy fuzzy feeling :)
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Has anyone done this? Any tips? Am trying to be proper annoying and a bit fucking useless, but doubt anyone's noticed the difference.
Depends on whether you want to get sacked, or made redundant with benefits. If you want to get sacked, anything from being useless to damaging company assets, assault, chronic bullying or something else suitably offensive should probably do the trick, depending on employer and what sort of reference/criminal record you might want.
If it's full-on redundancy you're after, that's harder. Either wait for your company to go under, or if that's not likely, probably identify someone highly efficient and popular with management, and try to slowly move your role until it exactly duplicates what they are doing. Even this strategy may not work if your company is inefficient at identifying wasted resources or shy about shedding employees. Either way has risks - seeking the sack has risks to your CV, seeking redundancy is the long game and has considerable risks to your sanity!
Just back from the US - per our discussions you'll be interested to know that nobody is shopping over there, quite an astonishing marked difference in the 12 months since I was last here. I mean, consumer spending in Ireland has crashed with companies going bust left right and centre, but California right now makes Dublin look like an orgy of consumption! Don't know what pHile's take on it is, but things looked very very different in 12 months in LA.
cheers,
dave
Dave Anderson <(Address removed)> said:
consumer
spending in Ireland has crashed with companies going bust left right and
centre
So are there bargains to be had? (probably not with the daft exchange rate)
Bob Licious <(Address removed)> said:
Dave Anderson <(Address removed)> said:
consumer
spending in Ireland has crashed with companies going bust left right and
centreSo are there bargains to be had? (probably not with the daft exchange rate)
Not in Ireland - most ROI shoppers head to the UK if they get a chance. Even with the 3% closing of the VAT gap, there's still monsterous bargains buying in sterling and being charged in Euros. Most cross-border companies are still pricing as if it were €1.45 to the pound. I.e. clothes tags in Belfast showing £21 / €30. Buy it on Visa, bring it home, and then wait for the €22/23 to come through on your card. Do that with a stack of stuff, and the savings start to mount up. And that's presuming you aren't buying booze, where the difference is even more crazy due to insane ROI alchohol duty.
So to answer your question - no - nothing to be had purchasing Euro products and paying in Sterling - prices in the Republic are too extreme.
Shopping in US, different story (from € at least). Pair of Adidas trainers which would run me easily €79 in Dublin.. purchased in the US in Adidas outlet, through on my Visa at a tasty €39. Not sure how the £/$ rate is doing, especially as they're both in the toilet at the moment...
cheers,
dave
Dave Anderson <(Address removed)> said:
And that's presuming you aren't buying booze, where the difference is
even more crazy due to insane ROI alchohol duty.
How much for a pint in the pub?
... yes I am sitting down ready for the worst ;)
Bob Licious <(Address removed)> said:
Dave Anderson <(Address removed)> said:
And that's presuming you aren't buying booze, where the difference is
even more crazy due to insane ROI alchohol duty.How much for a pint in the pub?
... yes I am sitting down ready for the worst ;)
Depends where you go of course... Guinness probably €4.20>4.40 in a local, Lager around €4.60 or thereabouts. Head into the centre, trendy bars etc, and you're looking at €5 for a pint of anything, and I've been charged over €6 in some places.
I go for Guinness in the local more than anything, if I'm going out...
cheers,
dave
Dave Anderson <(Address removed)> said:
Depends where you go of course... Guinness probably €4.20>4.40 in a
local, Lager around €4.60 or thereabouts. Head into the centre, trendy
bars etc, and you're looking at €5 for a pint of anything, and I've been
charged over €6 in some places.
It's almost like they don't want people to get pissed. Bloody thieves!
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Where's "we are not barnacles" when you need him?
Has anyone done this? Any tips? Am trying to be proper annoying and a
bit fucking useless, but doubt anyone's noticed the difference.
i've done it a few times. 1st time i was a manager and just delegated myself out of a job. second time was more complicated. being a pain is your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.
dub kult <(Address removed)> said:
being a pain is
your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i
had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.
I've done this too, just a case of pushing it and pushing it gradually. Making an arse of youself and forming enemies. One trick is to pick battles with thick people with no actual power in the company, all the mutton-dressed-as-lamb, menopausal battle axes just loved me. Over time you'll get pulled into the office for a chat, disciplinaries etc. There fight your case passionately, deny all charges, blame everyone else and make like you're the victom.
Inevitably you'll get set up for a fall, if you've choosen wisely it'll be a piss poor effort then after that inform someone else with a bit of know, HR etc, that you've been keeping a diary and any attempt to suspend/sack you etc will result in you going to a tribunal for victimisation and unfair dismissal.
By the time I left, I had them right over a barrel, coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long. But they couldn't do ought as they knew I had enough of a case on them and sharp enough to word that case quite eloquently.
Ultimately it's a soul destroying experience though, stressful and even your mates at work who you do lunchtimes/go drinking with or that start to get hacked off at you. At the same time every other middle manager, line manager etc hates your guts. In the end took me a total of 2 years and like dub it was during some restructuring I finally got the push for just under 1/2 a years salary.
Was nice to have a bit of a lump sum but in hindsight I dunno if I'd do it again, knowing how long it actually took to drag out.
Papa Bendy <(Address removed)> said:
dub kult <(Address removed)> said:
being a pain is
your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i
had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.I've done this too, just a case of pushing it and pushing it gradually. Making an arse of youself and forming enemies. One trick is to pick battles with thick people with no actual power in the company, all the mutton-dressed-as-lamb, menopausal battle axes just loved me. Over time you'll get pulled into the office for a chat, disciplinaries etc. There fight your case passionately, deny all charges, blame everyone else and make like you're the victom.
Inevitably you'll get set up for a fall, if you've choosen wisely it'll be a piss poor effort then after that inform someone else with a bit of know, HR etc, that you've been keeping a diary and any attempt to suspend/sack you etc will result in you going to a tribunal for victimisation and unfair dismissal.
By the time I left, I had them right over a barrel, coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long. But they couldn't do ought as they knew I had enough of a case on them and sharp enough to word that case quite eloquently.
Ultimately it's a soul destroying experience though, stressful and even your mates at work who you do lunchtimes/go drinking with or that start to get hacked off at you. At the same time every other middle manager, line manager etc hates your guts. In the end took me a total of 2 years and like dub it was during some restructuring I finally got the push for just under 1/2 a years salary.
Was nice to have a bit of a lump sum but in hindsight I dunno if I'd do it again, knowing how long it actually took to drag out.
Thanks for that.
.."coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long..."
lol, have you got our office bugged? Problem is that was my opening position and is the reason why I need to leave!
It's a funny one leaving. There's so little work to do, no targets, unlimited internet access, free car, petrol, phone etc, but..it's just not stimulating enough.
I'll take working harder for less money but doing something more rewarding (ha say that now..)
We are not barnacles!
I can't see any restructing happening here - I'm erring on the side of karma and just going to bow out disgracefully via the resigning option I think.
Thanks again.
:)
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Papa Bendy <(Address removed)> said:
dub kult <(Address removed)> said:
being a pain is
your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i
had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.I've done this too, just a case of pushing it and pushing it gradually. Making an arse of youself and forming enemies. One trick is to pick battles with thick people with no actual power in the company, all the mutton-dressed-as-lamb, menopausal battle axes just loved me. Over time you'll get pulled into the office for a chat, disciplinaries etc. There fight your case passionately, deny all charges, blame everyone else and make like you're the victom.
Inevitably you'll get set up for a fall, if you've choosen wisely it'll be a piss poor effort then after that inform someone else with a bit of know, HR etc, that you've been keeping a diary and any attempt to suspend/sack you etc will result in you going to a tribunal for victimisation and unfair dismissal.
By the time I left, I had them right over a barrel, coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long. But they couldn't do ought as they knew I had enough of a case on them and sharp enough to word that case quite eloquently.
Ultimately it's a soul destroying experience though, stressful and even your mates at work who you do lunchtimes/go drinking with or that start to get hacked off at you. At the same time every other middle manager, line manager etc hates your guts. In the end took me a total of 2 years and like dub it was during some restructuring I finally got the push for just under 1/2 a years salary.
Was nice to have a bit of a lump sum but in hindsight I dunno if I'd do it again, knowing how long it actually took to drag out.
Thanks for that.
.."coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long..."
lol, have you got our office bugged? Problem is that was my opening position and is the reason why I need to leave!
It's a funny one leaving. There's so little work to do, no targets, unlimited internet access, free car, petrol, phone etc, but..it's just not stimulating enough.
I'll take working harder for less money but doing something more rewarding (ha say that now..)
We are not barnacles!
I can't see any restructing happening here - I'm erring on the side of karma and just going to bow out disgracefully via the resigning option I think.
Thanks again.
:)
How to resign with dignity and style:
http://www.i-resign.com/uk/resigning/how-to-resign.asp
Mass resignation as a strategy of defence against the tyranny of corporate employers? - If only we had the unity and balls, they'd come back begging with counter-offers of improved renumeration and conditions of employment, surely?
s M i l e <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Papa Bendy <(Address removed)> said:
dub kult <(Address removed)> said:
being a pain is
your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i
had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.I've done this too, just a case of pushing it and pushing it gradually. Making an arse of youself and forming enemies. One trick is to pick battles with thick people with no actual power in the company, all the mutton-dressed-as-lamb, menopausal battle axes just loved me. Over time you'll get pulled into the office for a chat, disciplinaries etc. There fight your case passionately, deny all charges, blame everyone else and make like you're the victom.
Inevitably you'll get set up for a fall, if you've choosen wisely it'll be a piss poor effort then after that inform someone else with a bit of know, HR etc, that you've been keeping a diary and any attempt to suspend/sack you etc will result in you going to a tribunal for victimisation and unfair dismissal.
By the time I left, I had them right over a barrel, coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long. But they couldn't do ought as they knew I had enough of a case on them and sharp enough to word that case quite eloquently.
Ultimately it's a soul destroying experience though, stressful and even your mates at work who you do lunchtimes/go drinking with or that start to get hacked off at you. At the same time every other middle manager, line manager etc hates your guts. In the end took me a total of 2 years and like dub it was during some restructuring I finally got the push for just under 1/2 a years salary.
Was nice to have a bit of a lump sum but in hindsight I dunno if I'd do it again, knowing how long it actually took to drag out.
Thanks for that.
.."coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long..."
lol, have you got our office bugged? Problem is that was my opening position and is the reason why I need to leave!
It's a funny one leaving. There's so little work to do, no targets, unlimited internet access, free car, petrol, phone etc, but..it's just not stimulating enough.
I'll take working harder for less money but doing something more rewarding (ha say that now..)
We are not barnacles!
I can't see any restructing happening here - I'm erring on the side of karma and just going to bow out disgracefully via the resigning option I think.
Thanks again.
:)
How to resign with dignity and style:
http://www.i-resign.com/uk/resigning/how-to-resign.asp
Mass resignation as a strategy of defence against the tyranny of corporate employers? - If only we had the unity and balls, they'd come back begging with counter-offers of improved renumeration and conditions of employment, surely?
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse" will come back to haunt you.
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse" will come back to haunt you.
usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a few months
all I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth it
Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse" will come back to haunt you.
usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a few months
all I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth it
Yeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling the big place and getting a smaller one - failing that we'll have to run it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!
Cheers
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
s M i l e <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Papa Bendy <(Address removed)> said:
dub kult <(Address removed)> said:
being a pain is
your best bet. but not so much that they can fire you. in both cases, i
had to wait for the inevitable restructuring.I've done this too, just a case of pushing it and pushing it gradually. Making an arse of youself and forming enemies. One trick is to pick battles with thick people with no actual power in the company, all the mutton-dressed-as-lamb, menopausal battle axes just loved me. Over time you'll get pulled into the office for a chat, disciplinaries etc. There fight your case passionately, deny all charges, blame everyone else and make like you're the victom.
Inevitably you'll get set up for a fall, if you've choosen wisely it'll be a piss poor effort then after that inform someone else with a bit of know, HR etc, that you've been keeping a diary and any attempt to suspend/sack you etc will result in you going to a tribunal for victimisation and unfair dismissal.
By the time I left, I had them right over a barrel, coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long. But they couldn't do ought as they knew I had enough of a case on them and sharp enough to word that case quite eloquently.
Ultimately it's a soul destroying experience though, stressful and even your mates at work who you do lunchtimes/go drinking with or that start to get hacked off at you. At the same time every other middle manager, line manager etc hates your guts. In the end took me a total of 2 years and like dub it was during some restructuring I finally got the push for just under 1/2 a years salary.
Was nice to have a bit of a lump sum but in hindsight I dunno if I'd do it again, knowing how long it actually took to drag out.
Thanks for that.
.."coming in 45 mins late, doing a total of 2 hours max work a day and just sitting on the web and moaning all day long..."
lol, have you got our office bugged? Problem is that was my opening position and is the reason why I need to leave!
It's a funny one leaving. There's so little work to do, no targets, unlimited internet access, free car, petrol, phone etc, but..it's just not stimulating enough.
I'll take working harder for less money but doing something more rewarding (ha say that now..)
We are not barnacles!
I can't see any restructing happening here - I'm erring on the side of karma and just going to bow out disgracefully via the resigning option I think.
Thanks again.
:)
How to resign with dignity and style:
http://www.i-resign.com/uk/resigning/how-to-resign.asp
Mass resignation as a strategy of defence against the tyranny of corporate employers? - If only we had the unity and balls, they'd come back begging with counter-offers of improved renumeration and conditions of employment, surely?
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse" will come back to haunt you.
Then there's this kind of self affirming statute of limitations where the person or people you to told to go fuck themselves are no longer there.. all you got to do is turn up again and pretend like nothing happened. 11 years is my current estimate.
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you
never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse"
will come back to haunt you.usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because
you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a
few monthsall I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a
poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own
personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth itYeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough
cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call
it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few
projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling
the big place and getting a smaller one – failing that we'll have to run
it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!Cheers
If you're buggering off soon and you've got enough money to last a year or two then why don't you just stick it out? I don't get the desperation to leave, dick around on the net for a few months, listen to new music, talk shite on message boards.
Do you still think we're all doomed by the way?
Cheers,
Roo
Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you
never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your arse"
will come back to haunt you.usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because
you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a
few monthsall I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a
poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own
personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth itYeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough
cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call
it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few
projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling
the big place and getting a smaller one – failing that we'll have to run
it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!Cheers
If you're buggering off soon and you've got enough money to last a year or two then why don't you just stick it out? I don't get the desperation to leave, dick around on the net for a few months, listen to new music, talk shite on message boards.
Do you still think we're all doomed by the way?
Cheers,
Roo
Hi Roo,
Bear with me on this.
It was a bit of a shock to me to realise/find out that banks didn't actually have the money to lend to you before you want it. It's not depositors money, it's not banks money, it just doesn't exist.
So, when you say, I want to borrow 100K for a house, that money (£100k) is magically created, against your promise to pay back (usually) 2.5-3x what you borrowed. It's a claim on your future labour.
So.. if you were the only one with any money in the world - where would you get that extra 150-200k from?
This is why our banking system is a pyramid scheme. You can't pay back what you owe unless someone else gets into debt to create the money you need. But of course, they have also borrowed at compound interest, and now they've got to pay back more than was created too, and you've had some of their originally created money and given it back to the bank. Rinse and repeat.
The system falls over eventually, as all chain letters/get rich quick schemes do, when the people in last get flakey and can't pay. i.e. when the risk of default exceeds the interest you can charge. Now this should have happened ten or so years ago but the calibre of the 'last men in' was deliberately disguised through derivatives, not to mention self cert mortgages etc.
So.. banks lent more than they should to people who can't pay it back.
Banks lend money at leverage, it used to be 10:1 then went up to on average 20ish to 1 (sometimes infinity!) when some bright spark took the brakes off.
At a conservative 20:1, a 5% default rate means the bank is technically insolvent. In the states it's now close to 6%. Without bailout (gvts taking on more debt on our behalf) the system would have fallen over already.
Unlike previous recessions, this is not inventory lead, it's not a too much supply problem. It's a fundamental inability to service existing debts that is the problem.
The idea of sticking it out implies things will get better. Things haven't really started to get worse yet. We still have access to international trade, food, clean water, energy and pensions.
There are even pockets of liquidity out there, and government support for house prices and car loans (our biggest money creators) not to mention city bonuses will keep the system afloat for a bit longer, till interest rates rise.
If you live in London you may not see much trouble in the housing market yet in terms of pricing, though lenders are asking for more 'skin in the game'. You may see an increase in the number of houses for sale initally, with house prices only dropping when large numbers of people have to sell to raise cash, rather than want to.
We're still in the 'free smack' stage with interest rates so low. We're having problems even now though. Interest rates on T-bills in the states are negative at the moment - if you deposit $100, they'll give you back $99ish in three months. If you took $100 out and put it under the bed, in three months you'd still have $100. Big institutions are parking their money with the US treasury cos they're shitting themselves something wicked this way comes.
When we can't refinance our global debt this year [looks like about 7 trillion US, 3 trillion €, not to mention Japan etc, from a pool of 4-6 trillion in total] and interest rates rocket, things are going to snowball so badly I squirm from one bum cheek to the other just thinking about it. Higher default rates lead to higher interest rates lead to higher default rates.
At the moment there exists no viable alternative to the dollar, "the leper with the most fingers" in all this. I wish I could say that any of my main sources predictions have failed, but so far they've been bang on. If they start making bad calls their hypothesis would be called into question, but that hasn't happened yet.
2009 was called as the year you can still sell your house for bubble(ish) prices. 2010 as the year chickens come home. (aptly enough)
Yes the US can issue money against 'bad' promises to repay or 'nowt down' promises to repay, and attempt to devalue their own debt in a slow and ordered subterfuge. But deflationary bubble bursting events don't play out like that, or every Zimbabwean would be laughing. When a large creditor who holds what they though was something of value, realises it is being debased, they pull out.
Once this house of cards starts to fall, there's no stopping it.
Resources wars are likely from there on in as the medium of exchange has been removed. The US move to sell $6bill of weapons to Taiwan looks to me like a potential 'bay of pigs' already.
""There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
- Ludwig von Mises
I am available for children's parties, etc. Sorry not to have better news :(
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you
never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your
arse"
will come back to haunt you.usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because
you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a
few monthsall I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a
poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own
personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth itYeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough
cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call
it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few
projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling
the big place and getting a smaller one – failing that we'll have to
run
it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!Cheers
If you're buggering off soon and you've got enough money to last a year
or two then why don't you just stick it out? I don't get the desperation
to leave, dick around on the net for a few months, listen to new music,
talk shite on message boards.Do you still think we're all doomed by the way?
Cheers,
Roo
Hi Roo,
Bear with me on this.
It was a bit of a shock to me to realise/find out that banks didn't
actually have the money to lend to you before you want it. It's not
depositors money, it's not banks money, it just doesn't exist.So, when you say, I want to borrow 100K for a house, that money (£100k)
is magically created, against your promise to pay back (usually) 2.5–3x
what you borrowed. It's a claim on your future labour.So.. if you were the only one with any money in the world – where would
you get that extra 150–200k from?This is why our banking system is a pyramid scheme. You can't pay back
what you owe unless someone else gets into debt to create the money you
need. But of course, they have also borrowed at compound interest, and
now they've got to pay back more than was created too, and you've had
some of their originally created money and given it back to the bank.
Rinse and repeat.The system falls over eventually, as all chain letters/get rich quick
schemes do, when the people in last get flakey and can't pay. i.e. when
the risk of default exceeds the interest you can charge. Now this should
have happened ten or so years ago but the calibre of the 'last men in'
was deliberately disguised through derivatives, not to mention self cert
mortgages etc.So.. banks lent more than they should to people who can't pay it back.
Banks lend money at leverage, it used to be 10:1 then went up to on
average 20ish to 1 (sometimes infinity!) when some bright spark took the
brakes off.At a conservative 20:1, a 5% default rate means the bank is technically
insolvent. In the states it's now close to 6%. Without bailout (gvts
taking on more debt on our behalf) the system would have fallen over
already.Unlike previous recessions, this is not inventory lead, it's not a too
much supply problem. It's a fundamental inability to service existing
debts that is the problem.The idea of sticking it out implies things will get better. Things
haven't really started to get worse yet. We still have access to
international trade, food, clean water, energy and pensions.There are even pockets of liquidity out there, and government support
for house prices and car loans (our biggest money creators) not to
mention city bonuses will keep the system afloat for a bit longer, till
interest rates rise.If you live in London you may not see much trouble in the housing market
yet in terms of pricing, though lenders are asking for more 'skin in the
game'. You may see an increase in the number of houses for sale
initally, with house prices only dropping when large numbers of people
have to sell to raise cash, rather than want to.We're still in the 'free smack' stage with interest rates so low. We're
having problems even now though. Interest rates on T-bills in the states
are negative at the moment – if you deposit $100, they'll give you back
$99ish in three months. If you took $100 out and put it under the bed,
in three months you'd still have $100. Big institutions are parking
their money with the US treasury cos they're shitting themselves
something wicked this way comes.When we can't refinance our global debt this year [looks like about 7
trillion US, 3 trillion €, not to mention Japan etc, from a pool of 4–6
trillion in total] and interest rates rocket, things are going to
snowball so badly I squirm from one bum cheek to the other just thinking
about it. Higher default rates lead to higher interest rates lead to
higher default rates.At the moment there exists no viable alternative to the dollar, "the
leper with the most fingers" in all this. I wish I could say that any of
my main sources predictions have failed, but so far they've been bang
on. If they start making bad calls their hypothesis would be called into
question, but that hasn't happened yet.2009 was called as the year you can still sell your house for
bubble(ish) prices. 2010 as the year chickens come home. (aptly enough)Yes the US can issue money against 'bad' promises to repay or 'nowt
down' promises to repay, and attempt to devalue their own debt in a slow
and ordered subterfuge. But deflationary bubble bursting events don't
play out like that, or every Zimbabwean would be laughing. When a large
creditor who holds what they though was something of value, realises it
is being debased, they pull out.Once this house of cards starts to fall, there's no stopping it.
Resources wars are likely from there on in as the medium of exchange has
been removed. The US move to sell $6bill of weapons to Taiwan looks to
me like a potential 'bay of pigs' already.""There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about
by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should
come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency
system involved."– Ludwig von Mises
I am available for children's parties, etc. Sorry not to have better
news :(
Have you tried the new Cadburys Nibbles? they're very nice.
Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you
never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your
arse"
will come back to haunt you.usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because
you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a
few monthsall I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a
poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own
personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth itYeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough
cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call
it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few
projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling
the big place and getting a smaller one – failing that we'll have to
run
it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!Cheers
If you're buggering off soon and you've got enough money to last a year
or two then why don't you just stick it out? I don't get the desperation
to leave, dick around on the net for a few months, listen to new music,
talk shite on message boards.Do you still think we're all doomed by the way?
Cheers,
Roo
Hi Roo,
Bear with me on this.
It was a bit of a shock to me to realise/find out that banks didn't
actually have the money to lend to you before you want it. It's not
depositors money, it's not banks money, it just doesn't exist.So, when you say, I want to borrow 100K for a house, that money (£100k)
is magically created, against your promise to pay back (usually) 2.5–3x
what you borrowed. It's a claim on your future labour.So.. if you were the only one with any money in the world – where would
you get that extra 150–200k from?This is why our banking system is a pyramid scheme. You can't pay back
what you owe unless someone else gets into debt to create the money you
need. But of course, they have also borrowed at compound interest, and
now they've got to pay back more than was created too, and you've had
some of their originally created money and given it back to the bank.
Rinse and repeat.The system falls over eventually, as all chain letters/get rich quick
schemes do, when the people in last get flakey and can't pay. i.e. when
the risk of default exceeds the interest you can charge. Now this should
have happened ten or so years ago but the calibre of the 'last men in'
was deliberately disguised through derivatives, not to mention self cert
mortgages etc.So.. banks lent more than they should to people who can't pay it back.
Banks lend money at leverage, it used to be 10:1 then went up to on
average 20ish to 1 (sometimes infinity!) when some bright spark took the
brakes off.At a conservative 20:1, a 5% default rate means the bank is technically
insolvent. In the states it's now close to 6%. Without bailout (gvts
taking on more debt on our behalf) the system would have fallen over
already.Unlike previous recessions, this is not inventory lead, it's not a too
much supply problem. It's a fundamental inability to service existing
debts that is the problem.The idea of sticking it out implies things will get better. Things
haven't really started to get worse yet. We still have access to
international trade, food, clean water, energy and pensions.There are even pockets of liquidity out there, and government support
for house prices and car loans (our biggest money creators) not to
mention city bonuses will keep the system afloat for a bit longer, till
interest rates rise.If you live in London you may not see much trouble in the housing market
yet in terms of pricing, though lenders are asking for more 'skin in the
game'. You may see an increase in the number of houses for sale
initally, with house prices only dropping when large numbers of people
have to sell to raise cash, rather than want to.We're still in the 'free smack' stage with interest rates so low. We're
having problems even now though. Interest rates on T-bills in the states
are negative at the moment – if you deposit $100, they'll give you back
$99ish in three months. If you took $100 out and put it under the bed,
in three months you'd still have $100. Big institutions are parking
their money with the US treasury cos they're shitting themselves
something wicked this way comes.When we can't refinance our global debt this year [looks like about 7
trillion US, 3 trillion €, not to mention Japan etc, from a pool of 4–6
trillion in total] and interest rates rocket, things are going to
snowball so badly I squirm from one bum cheek to the other just thinking
about it. Higher default rates lead to higher interest rates lead to
higher default rates.At the moment there exists no viable alternative to the dollar, "the
leper with the most fingers" in all this. I wish I could say that any of
my main sources predictions have failed, but so far they've been bang
on. If they start making bad calls their hypothesis would be called into
question, but that hasn't happened yet.2009 was called as the year you can still sell your house for
bubble(ish) prices. 2010 as the year chickens come home. (aptly enough)Yes the US can issue money against 'bad' promises to repay or 'nowt
down' promises to repay, and attempt to devalue their own debt in a slow
and ordered subterfuge. But deflationary bubble bursting events don't
play out like that, or every Zimbabwean would be laughing. When a large
creditor who holds what they though was something of value, realises it
is being debased, they pull out.Once this house of cards starts to fall, there's no stopping it.
Resources wars are likely from there on in as the medium of exchange has
been removed. The US move to sell $6bill of weapons to Taiwan looks to
me like a potential 'bay of pigs' already.""There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about
by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should
come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency
system involved."– Ludwig von Mises
I am available for children's parties, etc. Sorry not to have better
news :(Have you tried the new Cadburys Nibbles? they're very nice.
Yeah whatever. What's best before date? You might want to get some stocks in. Hey. You've a young nipper. Not easy to hear shit like this. I understand. You did bloody ask though.
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
> You might want to get some stocks in.
Hmmm... you recommend blue-chip, tech, financial (lol) something else? ;)
I read all the unserviceable national debt signs, but I still can't quite believe that those making the rules wouldn't be capable of digging it out if it was coming to global finance meltdown of everything.
I mean, for the sake of argument - instead of hyperin(/de)flationary collapse (you pays your money you takes your choice), couldn't you just engage in a worldwide outright debt cancellation (i.e. let's cancel all debts and start again)? I mean, wouldn't it be possible to stop the train if there was worldwide consensus that it was doomsday to do anything else but wipe the blackboard clean, so to speak?
cheers,
dave
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