Responses to ‘Re: Making yourself redundant..’

Pete R <(Address removed)> said:

Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:

Pete R <(Address removed)> said:

Roo Lee <(Address removed)> said:

Pete R <(Address removed)> said:

Steve improper <(Address removed)> said:

Pete R <(Address removed)> said:

Thanks for the link Miles. Yeah softly softly is easiest I think.. you
never bloody know when "you can take your job and shove it up your
arse"
will come back to haunt you.

usually when you're down the job centre and they tell you that because
you left your job of your own choice, you don't get any benefits for a
few months

all I'd say is that if it takes a couple of years of working in a
poisonous atmosphere and getting up every day to continue your own
personal battle against HR & your managers, its not worth it

Yeah, I concur. We're heading out to Italy in April I think, got enough
cash to last us a year or two, so not getting dole (do they still call
it that?) isn't going to be a concern...(for now!) I've got a few
projects and possibilities lined up, not the least of which is selling
the big place and getting a smaller one – failing that we'll have to
run
it as a b&b/holiday let again and disappear off somewhere else!

Cheers

If you're buggering off soon and you've got enough money to last a year
or two then why don't you just stick it out? I don't get the
desperation
to leave, dick around on the net for a few months, listen to new music,
talk shite on message boards.

Do you still think we're all doomed by the way?

Cheers,

Roo

Hi Roo,

Bear with me on this.

It was a bit of a shock to me to realise/find out that banks didn't
actually have the money to lend to you before you want it. It's not
depositors money, it's not banks money, it just doesn't exist.

So, when you say, I want to borrow 100K for a house, that money (£100k)
is magically created, against your promise to pay back (usually) 2.5–3x
what you borrowed. It's a claim on your future labour.

So.. if you were the only one with any money in the world – where would
you get that extra 150–200k from?

This is why our banking system is a pyramid scheme. You can't pay back
what you owe unless someone else gets into debt to create the money you
need. But of course, they have also borrowed at compound interest, and
now they've got to pay back more than was created too, and you've had
some of their originally created money and given it back to the bank.
Rinse and repeat.

The system falls over eventually, as all chain letters/get rich quick
schemes do, when the people in last get flakey and can't pay. i.e. when
the risk of default exceeds the interest you can charge. Now this
should
have happened ten or so years ago but the calibre of the 'last men in'
was deliberately disguised through derivatives, not to mention self
cert
mortgages etc.

So.. banks lent more than they should to people who can't pay it back.

Banks lend money at leverage, it used to be 10:1 then went up to on
average 20ish to 1 (sometimes infinity!) when some bright spark took
the
brakes off.

At a conservative 20:1, a 5% default rate means the bank is technically
insolvent. In the states it's now close to 6%. Without bailout (gvts
taking on more debt on our behalf) the system would have fallen over
already.

Unlike previous recessions, this is not inventory lead, it's not a too
much supply problem. It's a fundamental inability to service existing
debts that is the problem.

The idea of sticking it out implies things will get better. Things
haven't really started to get worse yet. We still have access to
international trade, food, clean water, energy and pensions.

There are even pockets of liquidity out there, and government support
for house prices and car loans (our biggest money creators) not to
mention city bonuses will keep the system afloat for a bit longer, till
interest rates rise.

If you live in London you may not see much trouble in the housing market
yet in terms of pricing, though lenders are asking for more 'skin in
the
game'. You may see an increase in the number of houses for sale
initally, with house prices only dropping when large numbers of people
have to sell to raise cash, rather than want to.

We're still in the 'free smack' stage with interest rates so low. We're
having problems even now though. Interest rates on T-bills in the
states
are negative at the moment – if you deposit $100, they'll give you back
$99ish in three months. If you took $100 out and put it under the bed,
in three months you'd still have $100. Big institutions are parking
their money with the US treasury cos they're shitting themselves
something wicked this way comes.

When we can't refinance our global debt this year [looks like about 7
trillion US, 3 trillion €, not to mention Japan etc, from a pool of 4–6
trillion in total] and interest rates rocket, things are going to
snowball so badly I squirm from one bum cheek to the other just
thinking
about it. Higher default rates lead to higher interest rates lead to
higher default rates.

At the moment there exists no viable alternative to the dollar, "the
leper with the most fingers" in all this. I wish I could say that any
of
my main sources predictions have failed, but so far they've been bang
on. If they start making bad calls their hypothesis would be called
into
question, but that hasn't happened yet.

2009 was called as the year you can still sell your house for
bubble(ish) prices. 2010 as the year chickens come home. (aptly enough)

Yes the US can issue money against 'bad' promises to repay or 'nowt
down' promises to repay, and attempt to devalue their own debt in a
slow
and ordered subterfuge. But deflationary bubble bursting events don't
play out like that, or every Zimbabwean would be laughing. When a large
creditor who holds what they though was something of value, realises it
is being debased, they pull out.

Once this house of cards starts to fall, there's no stopping it.

Resources wars are likely from there on in as the medium of exchange has
been removed. The US move to sell $6bill of weapons to Taiwan looks to
me like a potential 'bay of pigs' already.

""There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about
by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should
come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit
expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency
system involved."

– Ludwig von Mises

I am available for children's parties, etc. Sorry not to have better
news :(

Have you tried the new Cadburys Nibbles? they're very nice.

Yeah whatever. What's best before date? You might want to get some
stocks in. Hey. You've a young nipper. Not easy to hear shit like this.
I understand. You did bloody ask though.