Responses to ‘Little bit of politics’
Thought this may be of interest, seeing as having a functioning economy affects us all. It's a prediction of how the next phase of "the artist formally known as credit crisis' may play out.
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thought this may be of interest, seeing as having a functioning economy
affects us all.It's a prediction of how the next phase of "the artist formally known as
credit crisis' may play out.Their recent calls – a rally from March until 'fall' look like being
bang on – alas if they are, their other, more 'doomer porn' predictions
look more plausible.It was written yesterday.
"Crashes don't happen at the beginning of moves, as positive feedback
spirals don't work that way. Cascades or crashes typically happen later
in a downward phase (third wave at several degrees of trend
simultaneously for elliottwave afficionados), once some 'momentum' has
built up. Large, but short-lived downward spikes are also typical at the
end of downward moves, acting as a set up for a new rally. These
patterns unfold at all degrees of trend at the same time, so you see
larger and smaller versions of them.A typical pattern early in a new downward trend would be a series of
sharp downward moves, interspersed with choppy upward rallies, at quite
small scale for the time being.Added today:
The pattern I am describing matches what we are currently seeing – a
slow (for the time being) ratcheting lower. This considerably increases
the odds that the rally is indeed over and the next phase of the decline
has begun.Last year we said that 2009 would be the year Wall Street ate Main
Street for breakfast. That is exactly what has been going on, although
the catabolism has been obscured so far by the rally that has put so
many back to sleep.What will happen with this new phase of the decline is that the veil
will be torn away and the hollowing out that has been going on all year
will become obvious. The catabolic dynamic is also set to accelerate
sharply. At some point, people are going to realize that Main Street has
already been eaten."
Argh, gimme a graph as can't understand the rhetoric !!
DJ
Pete R <(Address removed)> said:
Thought this may be of interest, seeing as having a functioning economy affects us all.
It's a prediction of how the next phase of "the artist formally known as credit crisis' may play out.
Their recent calls - a rally from March until 'fall' look like being bang on - alas if they are, their other, more 'doomer porn' predictions look more plausible.
It was written yesterday.
"Crashes don't happen at the beginning of moves, as positive feedback spirals don't work that way. Cascades or crashes typically happen later in a downward phase (third wave at several degrees of trend simultaneously for elliottwave afficionados), once some 'momentum' has built up. Large, but short-lived downward spikes are also typical at the end of downward moves, acting as a set up for a new rally. These patterns unfold at all degrees of trend at the same time, so you see larger and smaller versions of them.
A typical pattern early in a new downward trend would be a series of sharp downward moves, interspersed with choppy upward rallies, at quite small scale for the time being.
Added today:
The pattern I am describing matches what we are currently seeing - a slow (for the time being) ratcheting lower. This considerably increases the odds that the rally is indeed over and the next phase of the decline has begun.
Last year we said that 2009 would be the year Wall Street ate Main Street for breakfast. That is exactly what has been going on, although the catabolism has been obscured so far by the rally that has put so many back to sleep.
What will happen with this new phase of the decline is that the veil will be torn away and the hollowing out that has been going on all year will become obvious. The catabolic dynamic is also set to accelerate sharply. At some point, people are going to realize that Main Street has already been eaten."
Wasn't society supposed to have collapsed by now? This time last year you predicted October 09 as the month by which it would all have happened. Am sure that some fo the predictions you have shown are correct but here we are a year on and the shelves are still full, the summer of rage never happened and things feel pretty much the same.
